An (Attempted) Objective Assessment of The 2018 Election

Well, that was fun. Regardless of the outcome, I, like probably 99% of Americans, am glad it is over. Context first:

In the Senate the GOP had a clear advantage with 26 of 35 races being Democrat seats and many of them being in GOP-friendly states. In the House the GOP faced an uphill battle with close to 50 retirements and historical trends pointing to the party in power typically losing 30 seats or more, and up to 63 (Obama). The Dems needed 23 to flip the House. The story was similar among state governors where the GOP had a number retiring or term-limited and started with an all-time record 33 governors.

The good: the GOP is poised to gain a net three Senate seats pending the outcomes of Florida and Arizona and the Mississippi run-off, the latter a near-lock as the state had two Republicans run, diluting the vote. This would take them to 54 with pick-ups in ND, Indiana, Missouri and Florida and one narrow loss in Nevada. They also appear to have lost Montana, unfortunately, by a few thousand votes. The Senate controls the judiciary and a large part of legislation, so expanding their number is huge to Trump and the GOP, especially with the electoral map being less Senate-friendly to them in 2020.

The not very good: the GOP lost control of the House as expected, but so far the losses are a net 26 (29 lost, 3 gained) so not as bad as many feared or projected. Furthermore, over half of these came from a mere six states: NY, NJ, VA, PA, IA and IL. A few more losses are expected perhaps bringing the number of total seats lost to around 30 or a little higher. This was not the “Blue Wave” that the Democrats and far-left media had been trumpeting. Dare I say, if the GOP had a more normal retirement number of 20-25, they likely would have held the House? On the governor’s side, the GOP appears to have lost seven states while gaining one, while the Dems picked up 7. Again, about as expected. Not great but given the all-time high of 33 states held, the GOP really had no place to go but down.

With this, I would say both sides largely held serve, and call it a minor loss for the GOP. Winning a couple more Senate seats and holding a few more governors or keeping the House would have been a huge win for the GOP and Trump, and they were not that far off. This was not a resounding Dem victory: do not listen to the corrupt media propaganda calling it such. But it was also not a victory for Trump, despite the way he is positioning it.

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